Nigeria’s average daily crude production remains below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Nigeria’s crude production rose to 1.38 million barrels per day in March, up by 69,000 bpd from 1.31 million bpd recorded in February, but still 117,000 bpd below its quota.
Also, the figures for February indicate a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, widening the country’s shortfall from its OPEC production allocation. This is the eighth consecutive month the country has failed to meet the OPEC quota since July 2025.
Previously, Nigeria recorded a marginal improvement in January, when production rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd, the rebound was short-lived as output fell significantly in February.
However, the earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had also shown that crude oil production weakened at the end of 2025. Production declined from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, before recovering slightly in January.
In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.
The production slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March to 1.40 mbpd, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.
Even though, output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained below its OPEC ceiling until June, when production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, slightly exceeding the quota.
The country sustained the momentum in July with 1.51 mbpd before falling below the benchmark again in subsequent months.
A report by Veritas Nexus Report indicates that first-quarter 2026 figures are below the government’s budget benchmark.
In recent times, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said oil production (crude and condensate) reached 1.8 mbpd in March.
Official of the commission told The PUNCH that the recovery started in mid-March after all assets on turnaround maintenance resumed operations. The official expressed optimism that crude production would meet the OPEC quota in April.
The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC production quota is not only affecting its oil export earnings but also adversely impacting domestic refineries that are starved of feedstock for their operations.
Moreso, The PUNCH exclusively reported on March 9, 2026, that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, had begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders in a bid to sustain domestic refining operations.
“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior official at NNPC, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, had told The PUNCH.
The report showed that several heavyweight OPEC producers implemented sharp cuts. Saudi Arabia’s output plunged by 2.35 mbpd to 7.76 mbpd, while Iraq slashed production by 2.23 mbpd to 1.9 mbpd.
Also, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also posted steep declines of 1.48 mbpd and 1.380 mbpd, respectively.
And Venezuela increased production by 75,000 bpd to 1.1 mbpd, Congo added 16,000 bpd to reach 307,000 bpd, and Libya gained 15,000 bpd to 1.3 mbpd. Algeria recorded a marginal drop of 2,000 bpd.
The report said OPEC group totals were unavailable due to independent rounding and missing data for some members. It added that Saudi Arabia’s supply to the market in March was 7.76 million bpd, compared to production of 6.97 million bpd, while no data was reported for Gabon and Iran.
