Global trade in goods rose to about $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, representing a 12.5 per cent increase from the corresponding period in 2025, driven largely by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EVs) and related supply-chain products.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the increase was supported by higher prices and strong trading activity in East Asia, where developing economies recorded double-digit quarterly expansion.
UNCTAD said rising demand for AI and electric vehicle-related products was boosting global trade, particularly in critical minerals, semiconductors and batteries.
Critical minerals recorded the strongest growth among key products, rising by 38 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. Semiconductor trade increased by 25 per cent, while batteries grew by 15 per cent. Information and communications technology goods rose by 14 per cent, while trade in electric cars increased by 11 per cent.
Services trade also expanded, recording 10.5 per cent year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, although at a slower pace than goods trade.
East Asia remained the main driver of quarter-on-quarter growth, with developing economies and South-South trade recording double-digit expansion over the past 12 months. However, excluding East Asia, developing economies recorded an overall contraction in the first quarter, largely due to weaker trade flows involving the Middle East and South Asia.
Intra-regional trade increased across most regions, although South America continued to record relatively weak trade within the region. Over the 12-month period, import growth was strongest in Africa, East Asia and Europe.
Despite the strong performance, UNCTAD raised concerns about the growing impact of non-tariff measures on least developed countries (LDCs). The agency said LDCs lose about 10 per cent of their exports to G20 markets because of difficulties meeting increasingly complex non-tariff requirements.
UNCTAD said that while tariff disputes dominated global trade discussions following disruptions in 2025, non-tariff measures had become a major source of trade costs, particularly for developing economies.
The agency’s April 2026 assessment also showed that global trade expanded strongly in 2025, driven largely by manufacturing, which grew by 11 per cent. Agricultural trade also increased, supported by stronger activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 6 per cent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, with developed economies accounting for a significant portion of the increase.
Nigeria, however, recorded a sharp decline in FDI in the first quarter of 2026. The country attracted $135.08 million in FDI, down from $357.80 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
UNCTAD data showed that Nigeria recorded total capital inflows of about $10.37 billion during the quarter, with portfolio investments and other short-term financial instruments accounting for much of the inflow.
The latest figures highlight the growing influence of AI and electric vehicle supply chains on global commerce, particularly through rising demand for critical minerals, semiconductors and batteries.
As global trade continues to expand, attention will remain on whether the momentum can be sustained through the rest of 2026 and whether developing economies can overcome trade barriers and attract more long-term productive investment from the emerging global supply-chain opportunities.
