Nearly three years after the Federal Government introduced sweeping economic reforms, about 79 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty, underscoring the country’s persistent social and economic challenges, according to newly released World Bank documents.
The findings are contained in the World Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria (2026–2032) and the accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic (SCD), which outline a seven-year strategy to support private sector-led growth, create jobs and accelerate poverty reduction.
According to the report, 33 per cent of Nigerians are classified as ultra-poor, 61 per cent live below the national poverty line, while 79 per cent are either poor or at risk of slipping back into poverty.
The World Bank acknowledged that recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy and restore investor confidence but noted that the gains have yet to improve living conditions for the majority of citizens.
It attributed Nigeria’s prolonged economic challenges to structural weaknesses, policy inconsistencies, heavy dependence on crude oil and repeated external shocks, which have left millions trapped in poverty.
The report estimated that about 139 million Nigerians currently live below the national poverty line, with poverty most prevalent in northern Nigeria. It also noted that more than 86 million people lack access to electricity, while three to four million young Nigerians enter the labour market each year with limited employment opportunities.
According to the Bank, although the Tinubu administration’s reforms—including the removal of petrol subsidy, exchange rate liberalisation, tighter monetary policy and tax reforms—have strengthened key macroeconomic indicators, high inflation continues to erode household incomes, especially among low-income families.
The report noted that economic growth improved from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the same period in 2025, while foreign reserves rose above 42 billion dollars, fiscal deficits narrowed and investor confidence improved.
However, it warned that the slow rollout of social protection programmes has limited the impact of the reforms on vulnerable households.
The World Bank stressed that sustained macroeconomic and structural reforms remain essential to reducing inflation, expanding fiscal space and translating economic stability into improved living standards.
Under the new Country Partnership Framework, the Bank identified job creation as the most effective pathway to reducing poverty, citing global experiences from countries such as India, Indonesia and China.
To achieve this, it plans to support labour-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), while addressing critical gaps in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.
The framework also proposes strengthening Nigeria’s social protection system through better-targeted cash transfers, expansion of the national social register, digital identity systems and digital payment infrastructure.
According to the report, only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians currently benefit from any form of social safety net, while public spending on social protection accounted for just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021.
The World Bank said it aims to help expand social protection coverage to about 41 million beneficiaries, with particular focus on the ultra-poor, poor and vulnerable populations.
The report further observed that employment alone will not immediately eliminate poverty because many Nigerians who are employed remain trapped in low-paying informal jobs. It noted that only 14 per cent of employed Nigerians work in regular wage-paying jobs, while the majority are engaged in low-productivity informal employment.
It projected that about 60 million young Nigerians will enter the labour force over the next decade, making large-scale job creation one of the country’s most urgent development priorities.
The Bank also highlighted Nigeria’s human capital challenges, warning that 84 per cent of children aged between five and 14 cannot read age-appropriate texts, despite attending school.
It recommended increased investments in nutrition, education, healthcare, sanitation and early childhood development, alongside stronger governance and sustained private sector investment, to break the cycle of poverty and improve long-term productivity.
Reviewing its previous 2021–2025 Country Partnership Framework, the World Bank noted that poverty increased from about 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, fuel subsidies, exchange rate distortions and insecurity.
Although it rated the implementation of the previous framework as “Moderately Satisfactory,” the Bank concluded that preserving the current reform momentum, accelerating private investment, strengthening governance and creating productive jobs will be critical to lifting millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
