Nigeria recorded the sharpest increase in petrol prices across Africa during the first half of 2026, as the Middle East conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted global crude oil supplies and exposed the country’s vulnerability to external market shocks despite growing domestic refining capacity.
The disclosure was contained in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report (January–June 2026) released on Tuesday by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).
According to the report, the conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered uncertainty across global oil markets, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and significantly increasing the cost of transporting petroleum products worldwide.
MEMAN explained that the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to abandon the traditional route and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage time from about 18 days to nearly 40 days.
“During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100 per barrel,” the association said.
It added that the disruption created a direct impact on Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market, where global price increases were immediately reflected at filling stations.
According to MEMAN, Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent increase in petrol prices during the peak of the crisis, the highest across Africa and more than double the increase recorded in countries such as Egypt, which posted a 14.3 per cent rise.
Despite the sharp increase in pump prices, the report noted that Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector witnessed a major structural shift as local refining increasingly replaced imported fuel.
MEMAN said the expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), with the local refining share rising from 38.9 per cent in 2025 to 81.7 per cent during the review period.
The report also stated that domestic refineries supplied an average of 64 per cent of Nigeria’s diesel demand, while local gas processing plants accounted for 90.5 per cent of cooking gas supply.
However, the association warned that domestic refining capacity remained insufficient to meet national demand during peak periods between February and April, forcing regulators to approve fuel imports to prevent shortages.
According to MEMAN, the supply gap highlighted the need for a hybrid system combining local refining with carefully managed imports to maintain fuel availability during periods of global disruption.
The report also revealed that marketers reduced fuel inventories because of rising replacement costs, causing Nigeria’s strategic petrol reserves to decline sharply.
National PMS stock sufficiency fell from 33 days in January to 16 days in May, well below the statutory 30-day safety benchmark, before recovering to about 20 days in June after imported products entered the market.
MEMAN warned that the rapid depletion of fuel reserves underscored the urgent need for government-backed strategic petroleum reserves to protect Nigeria against future global supply disruptions.
The association also disclosed that persistently high fuel prices forced many consumers to reduce fuel purchases, with average daily petrol consumption dropping by 22.3 per cent, while diesel demand declined by 17.5 per cent.
MEMAN maintained that although Nigeria’s downstream reforms are beginning to deliver results through increased domestic refining, sustained regulatory oversight will be crucial to promoting competition, protecting consumers, strengthening investor confidence and ensuring the long-term success of the country’s market-driven petroleum sector.
