The World Bank has revised upward its economic growth outlook for Nigeria, projecting that Africa’s largest economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, marking its fastest expansion in over a decade.
The updated forecast was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, representing increases of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the earlier projections of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent issued in June.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven largely by strong performance in the services sector, particularly finance as well as information and communication technology. The World Bank also cited a modest recovery in agriculture and Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products as key contributors to the improved growth outlook.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the World Bank said. “This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industry.”
The Bretton Woods institution noted that ongoing economic reforms, including changes to the tax system and continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity, improve investor confidence, and further ease inflationary pressures. It added that higher oil production is likely to offset weaker global oil prices, helping to boost government revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s external position.
However, the World Bank warned that sustaining the projected growth momentum will require addressing long-standing structural challenges. Despite the adoption of fiscal rules in 2007 to reduce dependence on volatile oil revenues, weak institutional frameworks have limited effective enforcement, leading to inconsistent fiscal discipline.
The report said current reform efforts are focused on removing these structural bottlenecks to ensure that economic growth is sustainable and inclusive.
On the global front, the World Bank noted that the world economy has remained more resilient than earlier anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, projecting global growth to moderate slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before picking up to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from its June forecast.
