By Ms. Abiola Bashorun
Every rainy season in Nigeria follows a familiar pattern: communities are flooded, lives are lost, homes and businesses are destroyed, and governments roll out emergency responses. Relief materials are distributed, committees are formed, and public sympathy grows. Yet, when the next rainy season arrives, the same tragedy unfolds.
According to Abiola Bashorun, the real issue is not the rain itself but Nigeria’s failure to prepare before it arrives.
She explained that Nigeria’s climate follows a well-established seasonal cycle. From October to March, the Harmattan season dominates as the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) moves southward, bringing dry winds from the Sahara and Sahel. As the ITD shifts northward, moisture-laden winds from the Atlantic Ocean usher in the rainy season.
Bashorun stressed that this predictable weather pattern means the dry season should serve as the country’s preparation period. During this time, governments should desilt drains, rivers and canals, dredge flood-prone waterways, clear vegetation, strengthen waste management systems, and enforce environmental sanitation laws while water levels remain low and maintenance work is easier to execute.
She noted that once the rains begin, nature simply follows its normal course as water flows from higher to lower ground. Floodwaters originating in northern states such as Kano State, Adamawa State, Taraba State, and Kaduna State move through Benue State, Kogi State, Edo State, and Ondo State before reaching coastal states including Lagos State, Ogun State, Imo State, Bayelsa State, and Rivers State.
She identified Lagos as one of the most vulnerable states because much of its land lies at or below sea level. Combined with rapid urbanization, a growing population, heavy commercial activities and poor waste disposal, drainage systems become overwhelmed during heavy rainfall.
Bashorun argued that many drainage channels across the country have been turned into refuse dumps, clogged with plastics, household waste, construction debris, sand and overgrown vegetation. As a result, stormwater cannot flow freely, making flooding less of a natural disaster and more of a failure of environmental planning and governance.
She further pointed out that warning signs are consistently available, with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency issuing Seasonal Climate Predictions and flood advisories months before peak rainfall. Despite these warnings, governments often act only after disasters occur rather than taking preventive measures.
While acknowledging that climate change is increasing the intensity of rainfall, Bashorun maintained that it does not excuse blocked drains, neglected waterways, poor waste management or weak enforcement of environmental regulations.
She called for Nigeria to shift from emergency response to disaster prevention, insisting that flood control begins long before the first rainfall through planning, maintenance, enforcement, investment and accountability.
“The rains have arrived,” she said. “The question is no longer whether flooding will occur. The question is whether those entrusted with protecting our environment carried out the work they were expected to do before the rains came.”
As Nigerians continue to count the cost of what she described as preventable flooding, Bashorun said it is time for the country to ask one simple question: Were the necessary preventive measures taken before the rains began?
Ms Abiola Bashorun is an environmental sustainability advocate, climate finance professional and development strategist. She writes extensively on environmental governance, climate resilience, sustainable infrastructure and public policy, advocating practical solutions to strengthen Nigeria’s resilience to climate and environmental challenges.
