The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has disclosed that most Nigerians prefer a reduction in interest rates ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for May 19 and 20, 2026.
According to the CBN’s April 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey Report released by its Statistics Department under the Economic Policy Directorate, 63.3 per cent of respondents supported a rate cut, while 26.0 per cent wanted rates retained and 10.7 per cent favoured further tightening.
The report showed that despite persistent inflationary pressures, many Nigerians are seeking lower borrowing costs to ease financial pressure on households and businesses.
The survey also revealed strong public engagement with the apex bank, with 92.1 per cent of respondents following CBN communications and 93.3 per cent expressing confidence in the bank’s transparency.
The findings come as the MPC prepares to take a decision on the Monetary Policy Rate amid concerns over inflation, exchange rate volatility, insecurity, transportation costs and rising energy prices.
Inflation perception worsened in April, as 67.2 per cent of respondents described inflation as high, compared to 56.4 per cent recorded in March. The Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.5 points, reflecting sustained pressure on prices.
Households appeared more affected than businesses. About 68.8 per cent of households said inflation was high in April, up from 61.7 per cent in March, while business respondents rose from 51.9 per cent to 65.9 per cent.
Among businesses, micro enterprises recorded the highest inflation concern at 69.9 per cent, while medium-sized firms reported the lowest at 63.2 per cent.
Lower-income earners were also more affected. Households earning below N70,000 monthly recorded the highest inflation concern at 77.9 per cent, while those earning between N250,001 and N350,000 reported the lowest at 46.6 per cent.
Rural residents felt the impact more strongly, with 70.4 per cent reporting high inflation compared to 67.6 per cent of urban respondents.
Participants identified energy costs, transportation expenses, exchange rate pressure, insecurity and infrastructure challenges as major drivers of rising prices.
Despite concerns over inflation, many respondents expressed cautious optimism that inflation could ease in the coming months. However, 58.5 per cent still expect prices to rise next month, while 56.7 per cent and 54.4 per cent anticipate increases over the next three and six months respectively.
The survey further showed that 67.9 per cent of respondents expect their spending to increase this month, with businesses appearing slightly more optimistic than households.
A total of 3,587 respondents participated in the survey, including 1,923 firms and 1,664 households selected from data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Population Commission.
Commenting on the outlook, economist Muda Yusuf said the MPC may likely maintain its current tight monetary stance due to inflationary pressures and increasing liquidity ahead of the 2027 elections.
He warned that further rate hikes could slow economic growth, weaken credit expansion and reduce private sector investment, stressing that Nigeria’s inflation is largely driven by structural and supply-side challenges rather than excess demand.
Analysts at United Capital Plc also projected that the MPC would likely retain current policy rates to balance inflation control with economic growth.
The analysts noted that global tensions, especially the United States-Iran crisis, could worsen inflation risks through rising oil prices and higher logistics costs. However, they argued that further tightening may have limited impact because inflation remains largely supply-driven.
United Capital projected that the MPC would retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent, keep the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45 per cent and maintain the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent, while possibly adjusting reserve requirements for some public sector deposits.
