Despite a 14-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, hopes for a swift resumption of Gulf shipping have been dashed. More than 24 hours after President Trump announced the truce—conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz—commercial traffic remains at a near-standstill. AIS tracking data from Pole Star Global shows that while a handful of vessels have passed through the waterway, the majority remain bound exclusively for Iranian ports.
AXSMarine reported that , approximately 959 vessels are currently positioned west of the Strait of Hormuz within the Gulf. While this is down from a recent peak of 1,016 vessels, the firm noted that the figure still represents a ‘significant backlog‘ of maritime traffic.
The international traffic appears to have reduced since April 5, when Windward recorded a peak of 20 transits—the highest since the conflict began on February 28. These movements were restricted to vessels approved by Tehran, either through the payment of a transit fee via the so-called “Tehran Tollbooth” or through bilateral agreements for safe passage with various Asian governments.
Following the ceasefire, freedom of navigation remains elusive. Shipping companies face a chaotic environment as Iran maintains its claim over the waterway and continues to demand tolls. Alarmingly, reports have surfaced of threats broadcast over VHF Channel 16, warning vessels of “destruction” if they attempt to transit the Strait without explicit Iranian authorization.
Important concerns remain that the ceasefire may collapse, exacerbated by Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon—actions that mediator Pakistan asserts are a direct violation of the agreement.
Iranian news agency FARS confirmed that Tehran suspended all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday afternoon in response to the strikes. Although permission had been granted for two tankers to transit earlier that day, the passage has since been sealed. As a result, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation has mandated that all vessels coordinate with Iranian naval forces. New mandatory routes have been designated: north of Larak Island for inbound traffic and south of Larak for outbound vessels. Authorities have declared the traditional southern route a “hazardous zone” closed to all traffic, although it is unverified whether the area has been mined.
